Syble Townsel's blog ::...date and its remaining schedule. We then look at how many "...Let’s hope they’re wrong. The Sox are 3.5 games back of the Twins, who...
The Season Recap The Boston Red Sox started the 2011 baseball season with a 2-10 record, and panic was setting in throughout Beantown. In the offseason, the Red Sox signed free agent OF Carl Crawford to a 7-year, $142M contract, and traded for 1B Adrian Gonzalez of the San Diego Padres, and consequently re-signed him with a 7-year, $154M deal. This added to an already potent lineup that included the likes of Jacoby Ellsbury, former AL MVP Dustin Pedroia, the weird-standing Kevin Youkilis and the super-clutch David Ortiz. Their opening day rotation included stud pitchers in Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, and breaking-out pitcher Clay Buchholz rounding out their top 3. Finishing out the games would be set-up man Daniel Bard and closer Jonathan Papelbon, who had 5 straight seasons of at least 35 saves going into the 2011 season (he currently stands at 30). This team had it all, from 5-tool players like Ellsbury and Pedroia, to sluggers like Ortiz and Gonzalez, and a rotation where the top 3 were to be feared, with two of the best in the game at what they do finishing off the games. It seemed like the World Series trophy was theirs to lose. From that 2-10 start until September 1st, the Red Sox went an incredible 80-42, nearly a 66.6% winning percentage. But that's where the good news for the Red Sox stopped. Jon Lester went on the 15-day DL in early July after straining a lat muscle. He was 10-4 at the time. Since returning from the disabled list, he has gone 5-4 in 11 starts, and has allowed 4 earned runs in his last two September starts in just 11 innings. Daisuke Matsuzaka, who was expected to be a staple of their rotation this season, underwent Tommy John surgery in June, effectively ending his season. Clay Buchholz was placed on the 60-day DL in mid-June to heal a stress fracture in his back that was causing him problems. There is the possibility that he could return if they make the playoffs, as he has been throwing simulated games, but his effectiveness remains to be determined should that happen. The Red Sox should be worried, with a team E.R.A. sitting at 4.14, good for 5th worst in the American League. They also have the 3rd highest walk rate as a pitching staff in the AL, and as we all know, free passes can lose you ball games. And for those that think they can hit their way to a World Series title, they have had a a team ERA of 4+ each of the last three seasons. In 2007, they were only 1 of 2 teams in the Majors to have a team ERA under 4 (the other being San Diego), and ended up bringing home a World Series championship. Over the same span that the Red Sox went 80-42, the Rays went a less-impressive (but still impressive nonetheless) 68-53. However, the Sox have gone 5-15 over their last 20 games, while the Rays have gone 12-8, considerably closing the gap. The three-headed pitching monster the Rays possess in David Price, Jeremy Hellickson and James Shields have allowed only 50 earned runs in 182.1 innings since the start of August. With Jeff Niemann the likely 4th starter in playoffs (his ERA has dropped over a full run and a half since he got shelled in Houston on June 26th), the Rays look poised to overtake the Red Sox. Their schedule is considerably tougher than that of Boston, with 6 of their final 9 games coming against the Yankees. However, by the time their end of the season series comes around, the Yanks should have the East wrapped (their magic number sits at 2), and will likely be sitting their starters. Speaking of pitching, the L.A. Angels possess one of the best in the game in Jered Weaver (2.41 ERA), perennial stud Dan Haren (3.24 ERA), and a man with a no-hitter in the 2011 season in Ervin Santana (3.41 ERA). They have the likely AL Rookie of the Year in Mark Trumbo, and speed all over the bases with Erick Aybar and Peter Bourjos, and off the bench with Mike Trout. While they do not possess the bats of the Sox, they do have an easier schedule ahead than Tampa, finishing a series with the Jays on Thursday, starting a series with Oakland on the weekend, and finishing off with Texas (who may also be resting players, as they have the ability to clinch before that series starts). And the Sox have to play against the Orioles 4 more times, who are 3-3 against the Sox since the All-Star break, and the Yankees 3 more times. Stranger things have happened (remember Rocktober?). Pitching wins championships, and if the Red Sox have to rely on Jon Lackey or Tim Wakefield for two starts in either the ALCS or World Series, then they are in a whole world of trouble. Erik Bedard is the likely third starter, but fatigue could be a factor with him, having not pitched over 100 innings in any season since 2007 (he is currently at 126 IP for this season), but they have to get there first. |
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